（伦敦28日综合电）《每日星报》与《每日邮报》报导，英国智库“国际战略研究所”（IISS）报告指出，若俄罗斯与乌克兰今年达成停火协议，加上美国总统特朗普缩减对北约的支持，俄罗斯最快可能会在2027年对欧洲国家发动攻击。
IISS的报告基于以下假设进行分析：乌克兰可能在今年稍晚与俄罗斯达成停火，美国在特朗普主导下退出北约，或者大幅缩减在欧洲的军力部署，将战略重心转向应对中国威胁。
尽管目前认为俄罗斯突袭北约成员国的可能性不高，IISS警告，若俄乌战争暂时画下句点，俄罗斯将有时间重整旗鼓，最快2年内就能恢复战前水准，足以构成实质威胁的军事实力。部分专家认为，普汀迟早会发动下一场战争，这不过是时间问题。
IISS报告警告北约成员国，尤其是波罗的海三国，可能会在2027年面临“重大威胁”。
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另外，IISS也点出北约自身的脆弱性，特别是美国与北约的伙伴关系受到动摇之际，“欧洲盟国不能再假设美国会持续提供必要的军事支援，防御来自俄罗斯的侵略”，“如果美军自2025年中期开始逐步退出欧洲战区，欧洲将迅速迎来安全脆弱期”。<\/p>\n\n\n\n
《每日邮报》报导称，IISS报告呼应美国智库兰德公司（RAND）的“乌克兰战后的俄罗斯军事力量”报告。兰德报告指出，即便乌克兰战争达成停火协议，克里姆林宫仍极可能维持战时经济体制，并持续推动军事重建。<\/p>\n\n\n\n
英国智库“皇家联合军事研究所”（RUSI）欧洲安全高级研究员阿诺德告诉《每日邮报》，西方决策者不能再天真以为还有很多年时间，可以进行对抗俄罗斯的准备。<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.chinapress.com.my\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/IISS-Russian-War-250528-a1-noresize.jpg\")
（示意图）<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n文：《每日邮报》、《每日星报》<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>
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加入中国报官方Telegram：<\/font>https:\/\/t.me\/chinapressonline<\/a><\/font><\/center>\n<\/html>\n<\/p>"}
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