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上半年经济优于预期新加坡大幅调高全年预测

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责任编辑: 财经小编

（新加坡11日讯）新加坡今年上半年经济按年增长5.9%，表现超出预期，随着人工智能（AI）相关资本支出加速增长预料改善接下来经济前景，新加坡贸工部大幅调高全年经济增长预测到4.5%至5.5%。

最新第2季经济调查报告显示，新加坡经济第2季增长5.9%，比初步预估的5.7%来得高，比第一季的6.3%有所放缓。

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这意味着上半年新加坡经济增长6.1%，促使贸工部把全年经济增长预测从2%至4%，显著调高到4.5%至5.5%；这也是该国今年内第2次上调经济增长预测，此前经济初步预估值为1%至3%。

贸工部在文告中指出，全球AI投资热潮的强度超出预期，为相关生产和出口提供了显著助力。展望今年余下时间，预计AI相关资本支出将进一步加速，从而提升那些接入全球科技价值链的经济体的增长前景。

冲突影响没预想严重

此外，当局指出，西亚冲突对经济的影响也没有最初担忧的那么严重。尽管霍尔木兹海峡封锁扰乱了全球能源及其他关键中间投入品的供应，但石油库存的释放以及向替代能源的转换，限制了全球能源价格的上涨。

尽管如此，西亚地区持续的紧张局势，加上全球石油库存处于较低水平，预计会使能源及其他关键投入品价格在今年下半年继续维持在高位。能源和投入品价格高企将进一步对全球通胀形成上行压力，并拖累全球经济活动。同时，美国关税预计将继续拖累受影响经济体的出口。

“考虑到这些发展以及各经济体次季的国内生产总值（GDP）表现，与5月的评估相比，新加坡今年的外部需求前景已有所改善。”

另外，新加坡次季非石油国内出口大幅增长27.4%，相比今年首季9.6%的涨幅显著扩大，因此将全年出口预测范围上调至增长14%至16%。

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