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AI狂热藏危机鳄王：80年大周期近尾声

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责任编辑: 财经小编

（纽约3日讯）桥水基金创办人、被称为“鳄王”的达利奥（Ray Dalio）发出强烈预计，表示人工智能（AI）领域正浮现典型的资产泡沫特征，市场面临着技术狂热、债务危机和地缘政治冲突等多重风险，全球经济正滑向80年一次的“大周期”衰退期的尾声。

达利奥在接受外媒访问时坦言，新科技总是伴随着狂热而来，如今的AI就像1929年的电气化和2000年的网络一样，是一项革命性的技术，但市场的问题在于“不关注其价格”。

“这类泡沫机制的形成非常清楚，新创公司只需募得5000万美元（约2亿414万令吉）资金，就能将估值推高至10亿美元（约40亿8200万令吉），创办人瞬间成为亿万富翁，但这些财富无法直接消费。”

达利奥

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建议分散投资

他强调，这种财富本质上仍是“未变现”的资产，必须出售才能转换为可支配的现金，一旦利率上升等因素，迫使投资者急需现金时，抛售潮便会引爆，资产价格重挫，泡沫就会被刺破。

随之而来的是企业被迫削减开支，迎来经济衰退。

除了短期的AI泡沫，达利奥更关注笼罩全球经济的“大周期”。透过研究过去500年的历史周期模式，他认为美国和英国等主要西方经济体正处于这个周期的“衰退阶段”。上一个周期始于1945年，平均持续约80年。

面对周期性震荡，达利奥建议分散配置、远离现金。在选择避险资产时，他更倾向于黄金而非比特币。

他透露，自己仅持有约1%比特币仓位，肯定其“无法被无限印制、也难以被技术破解”的特性，但强调在整体投资组合中占比5%至15%的避险资产部位里，仍偏好实体金条。

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