◤全球大流行◢哈佛研究：社交距离 维持至2022年才安全
（华盛顿15日综合电）美国哈佛大学研究人员的一项新研究显示，在最严重的这波新冠肺炎疫情过去之后，疫情可能会周期性地在冬季爆发；全球必须间歇性的保持社交距离相关的措施，避免民众聚集交叉感染直到2022年才安全。
这项研究周二（14日）发表在美国《科学》杂志上。哈佛大学公共卫生学院的研究人员运用美国的β属新型冠状病毒的时间序列数据，模拟病毒在温带地区的传播，预测从当前至2025年间冠病病毒感染可能出现的动态。
新型冠状病毒分为α、β、γ、δ四个属。β属冠状病毒包括鼠肝炎病毒、果蝠冠状病毒HKU9、严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒等。
研究认为，新冠肺炎疫情将变成“季节病”，就如感冒一样，在每年冬季月份有较高传染性。现时大家对于新冠肺炎病毒有太多未知，如不知道人体感染后的免疫程度、能持续到什么时候等等。
研究认为，保持社交距离的措施是否成功的一个重要衡量标准是，医疗机构的重症监护能力能否满足需求。为避免医疗机构超负荷，有必要将长时间或间歇性地保持社交距离的措施延长至2022年。
研究团队领导者、哈佛大学公共卫生学院基斯勒认为，一次的社交距离措施并不足以维持美国医疗体系应对新冠肺炎病毒的情况。他补充，在缺乏有效药物的情况下，社交距离措施应该周期性实施。而实施的时间，需依靠广泛病毒检验的数据。这样，医院才有足够时间恢复医疗能力。但若果找到确实的治疗方法和疫苗后，各国封城的期限跟强度则可以放宽。
同时，研究利用数据模型推断示警，即使在疫情明显趋缓的情况下，仍应保持病毒检测，因为传染病可能在2024年再次暴发，而一旦限制解除，病毒将很快卷土重来。
文：综合报导
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